Παγκόσμιες μακροοικονομικές ανισορροπίες : η οικονομική σχέση Αμερικής-Κίνας και η συμβολή της στην τρέχουσα ανισορροπία : προτάσεις για την πρόληψη και την αντιμετώπιση των παγκόσμιων ανισορροπιών

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the phenomenon of global imbalances through the relationship of the U.S. and China and how it relates to the architecture of the international monetary system. Short-term macroeconomic imbalances enjoy a universal acceptance. Borrowing increases consumption, economic euphoria, the value of all assets and creates positive expectations for economic growth. But in the long term the relationship between surplus and deficit countries is not sustainable so the need of adjustment is imperative. With the onset of the financial crisis of 2008 it was believed that the existing system had exhausted its potential and there was a need for a new narrative. It is argued that the transition to a multi-currency system can provide a solution to the Triffin dilemma but can also increase the volatility of the exchange rate and of capital movement. In addition there is still a significant lack of trust as the majority of the countries prefer to keep high reserves for the smoothing of their economies. It is postulated that the key to reducing imbalances is enhanced coordination and cooperation within the multilateral framework of the G-20, which will bring the surplus and the deficit countries together under a common agreement pursuing the goal of balancing.