Δημογραφικές προβολές πληθυσμού ασφαλιστικών οργανισμών : μελέτη περίπτωσης : ο κλάδος σύνταξης του Οργανισμού Ασφάλισης Ελευθέρων Επαγγελματιών (Ο.Α.Ε.Ε.)

Abstract

This study deals with the demographic projections of social security pension schemes. The aim is to investigate whether the evolution of pensioners to contributors ratio is possible according to specific scenarios and under the constraints of the workforce development as well as the corresponding effect on the benefits level. Using microdata of the Self-Employed Workers' Insurance Organisation (OAEE), the projections of its population were estimated according to different scenarios. The analysis revealed that the number of pensioners is constantly increasing, so in order to maintain the benefits level and to ensure the system’s balance, the number of contributors must be raised. Therefore, a future activation of the potential workforce is required. However, the sustainability of the pension scheme may not only be ensured by increasing employment, since the sustained and high rates of employment increment which are required lead to a maximum level for some of the scenarios before the end of the projection period. The demographic component should not be the only factor that affects the system’s functioning. Necessary adjustments to the other system’s parameters must be considered, in order to ensure the scheme’s sustainability and maintain a satisfactory level for the benefits of future retirees.